Grumpus the Prognosticator
Considering that I’m publishing this article during the COVID-19 Pandemic, I want to take a few paragraphs to acknowledge that these are troubled times without turning this into an article exclusively about the pandemic. As COVID-19 causes mass lock-downs and lay-offs all over the world, it’s forcing people to examine what their jobs and careers mean, especially if they no longer have one. Looking past the immediate onset of events, many are also questioning what employment will look like in a post-pandemic world with no vaccine close at hand. On the surface, then, it seems like an awkward time to publish an academic study of pension lump-sum buyout offers, which many people associate with the retirement end of a pensionable career.
Let me look into my crystal ball. I hope we can look back in a year and say I was wrong.
However, if the economic impact of the pandemic continues to suppress interest rates and cause significant amounts of market volatility, or a prolonged bear market, it will weaken many pension funds, similar to 2008 and 2009. Some will even enter the dreaded death spiral that I covered in Part 20 of the Pension Series. Under these circumstances, I’d expect lump-sum buyout offers to proliferate as pension funds de-risk to shore-up their finances. The two main methods for de-risking are lump-sum buyout offers and the same sort of Pension Risk Transfers (PRTs) I examined in Part 14 of the Pension Series. Therefore, it’s reasonable to assume that with more lump sums on offer more employees will take them, especially if they believe their pension funds are in the type of trouble I outline in Part 1 of the Pension Series.
