Tag Archives: pension series

The Pension Series (Part 21): Lump-Sum Buyout Offers

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Grumpus the Prognosticator

Considering that I’m publishing this article during the COVID-19 Pandemic, I want to take a few paragraphs to acknowledge that these are troubled times without turning this into an article exclusively about the pandemic. As COVID-19 causes mass lock-downs and lay-offs all over the world, it’s forcing people to examine what their jobs and careers mean, especially if they no longer have one. Looking past the immediate onset of events, many are also questioning what employment will look like in a post-pandemic world with no vaccine close at hand. On the surface, then, it seems like an awkward time to publish an academic study of pension lump-sum buyout offers, which many people associate with the retirement end of a pensionable career.

Lump-sum buyout

Let me look into my crystal ball. I hope we can look back in a year and say I was wrong.

However, if the economic impact of the pandemic continues to suppress interest rates and cause significant amounts of market volatility, or a prolonged bear market, it will weaken many pension funds, similar to 2008 and 2009. Some will even enter the dreaded death spiral that I covered in Part 20 of the Pension Series. Under these circumstances, I’d expect lump-sum buyout offers to proliferate as pension funds de-risk to shore-up their finances. The two main methods for de-risking are lump-sum buyout offers and the same sort of Pension Risk Transfers (PRTs) I examined in Part 14 of the Pension Series. Therefore, it’s reasonable to assume that with more lump sums on offer more employees will take them, especially if they believe their pension funds are in the type of trouble I outline in Part 1 of the Pension Series.

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The Pension Series (Part 11) : Pension Lump Sum Case Study — Updated

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Substantive Revision

This is a substantive revision to the original Pension Series Part 11 article I published on 18 JAN 2018. I updated this article because I have a new method for calculating the Total Dollar Value (TDV) of pensions that do not possess a Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA). The new method is far more accurate than the old method, so I am updating all articles in which I used the old method. That said, the new formula didn’t change the results of this case study because the estimated value of the pension annuities on offer increased vice decreased. As a result, the new method only strengthened the recommendation I made for the ChooseFI listener to concentrate on comparing the difference in value between her $75,740 lump sum offer and the lifetime annuity starting at age 60. 

Any additions I made to the text are in blue. Sentences from the old version of this article that discuss my old TDV method are struck through. I only used the feature a few times in the text, mostly to replace the old TDV steps with the new. As a result, the article itself remains fairly coherent.  Continue reading →

The Pension Series (Part 13): The Master Pension Value Calculator (Updated)

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Substantive Revision

This is a substantive revision to the original Pension Series Part 13 article I published on 04 FEB 2018. I updated this article because I have a new method for calculating the Total Dollar Value (TDV) of pensions that do not possess a Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA). The new method is far more accurate than the old method, so I am updating all articles in which I used the old method. That said, the new formula didn’t change the results of this case study because the estimated value of the pension increased, instead of decreased. As a result, it only strengthened the argument for Ms. Money Penny to stick with the lifetime annuity. 

The major changes for this article are in the spreadsheet, not in the text itself. If you downloaded and used the old spreadsheet, you should delete it and download the updated version. Any additions I made to the text are blue, and I only used the strikethrough feature a few times in the text, mostly to replace the old TDV with the new sum. As a result, the article itself remains fairly coherent.  Continue reading →

The Pension Series (Part 19): Pension Annuity vs. Lump Sum Analysis (Again) — Updated

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Substantive Revision

This is a substantive revision to the original Pension Series Part 19 article I published on 23 June 2019. I updated this article because I have a new method for calculating the Total Dollar Value (TDV) of pensions that do not possess a Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA). The new method is far more accurate than the old method, so I am updating all articles in which I used the old method.

I notified BrewDog (the subject of this article) and provided him with updated Master Pension Calculator spreadsheets that utilize my new method. I did this because the TDV of his no COLA pension changed significantly when I used the new formula. As a result, I also updated the two spreadsheets embedded in this article and some of the text. If you downloaded the old spreadsheets, delete them, and download the new spreadsheets with the new formula. The text changes are noted in blue below and include strike throughs of the original article’s verbiage when needed. I kept the italicized format for the verbiage cut and pasted from newer emails between BrewDog and myself. 

My apologies for any inconvenience this update may cause, or already has caused. I’m well aware that the updated version of this article no longer reads as clean and easy as the original post. However, I’m committed to ensuring the information shared on this blog is accurate. As a result, when new circumstances alter the accuracy of an old post, I feel obliged to update it, even at the expense of readability.      

If you want more information on why I updated the TDV formula for no COLA pensions, you can go to Part 4 of the Pension Series for the abridged version. That is the source article for all my TDV calculations, and as such I updated it first. If you’d rather read a more in-depth explanation about the impacts of inflation, and the correct way to incorporate it into TDV calculations, then you’ll need to wait for my book, “The Golden Albatross: How To Determine If Your Pension Is Worth It“. It’s currently scheduled to be published in early 2020 by ChooseFI publishing.

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The Pension Series (Part 4): Total Dollar Value (TDV) of Your Pension (Updated)

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Mea Culpa

This is a substantive revision to the original article I published on 01 October 2017 entitled “The Pension Series (Part 4): Total Dollar Value (TDV) of Your Pension.” I am making this substantive revision because I have updated the formula to calculate the Total Dollar Value (TDV) for pensions without a Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA).

In my two-and-a-half years of blogging, this is only the second major revision I’ve made to an article. However, as a result of updating the formula, it will not be my last. Several other articles in which I attempt to calculate the TDV of people’s pensions also need to be changed. I will update and re-publish those articles, much as I did with this one, with notifications to all my readers. But, since this article explains TDV calculations of no COLA pensions, I needed to start with this one. Continue reading →

The Pension Series (Part 20): Pensions, Volatility, and Risk

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Pssssst

Hey! Over here. It’s me, Captain Obvious. I’m one of Grumpus Maximus’s many alter egos. Kind of like that guy from the movie Glass, but all good, no beasts. Don’t tell him, but I snagged the keyboard when he wasn’t looking. I wanted to let everyone know that stock market volatility is back. You already knew that? Of course you did, that’s why I’m called Captain Obvious. What you may not have noticed is that the volatility is spreading. It’s in the bond market now as well as the stock market. Even the U.S. housing market is starting to tremble in certain places.

I told GM that he should’ve written about volatility months ago, but he said too many Financial Independence (FI) bloggers were already writing about it. Plus, he hadn’t taken the time to determine if volatility posed any kind of risk to people’s pensions, or the pension funds that back them. I suspect he was just being lazy. Either that or too busy with his retirement plans to care about all three of his loyal readers. Well, I’m here to tell you that I finally convinced him to research the issue and write a post. Just remember that, when you leave your comments at the bottom of the page. Captain Obvious, out!

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The Pension Series (Part 18): Social Security – The People’s Pension

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Waffles and Chicken(shit)

I’ve waffled in recent weeks on the need to write a post about Social Security for the Pension Series. On the one hand, since the American form of Social Security pays out in annuity form, it seems like a relevant topic for the Series. Plus, an overwhelming majority of American workers pay into the program. Therefore, it’s the sole remaining Defined Benefit Plan (DBP) that almost all Americans workers still have access to in retirement. Finally, because almost everyone’s eligible for Social Security in America, there’s uncertainty surrounding the future financial viability of the program. That uncertainty alone is enough to justify the need for an article since much of the Pension Series is built around the idea of quantifying the uncertainty surrounding pensions.

On the other hand, there are a lot of drawbacks to writing an article on Social Security. First and foremost, is the sheer number of articles already written about the subject. From books to news articles, to blogs, and podcasts; I doubt there’s a format of media that hasn’t been utilized to discuss Social Security in the USA. That’s partly due to the fact that Social Security is an extremely controversial topic. Since nearly everyone’s entitled to it, nearly everyone has a strong opinion about it. In fact, the government calls it an entitlement, and as an entitlement, it’s earned a reputation as a third rail in American politics — meaning a politician touches it at their own peril much like the electrified third rail in a subway system. Continue reading →

The Pension Series (Part 17): Buying Years – A Case Study

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The Set Up

A reader (let’s call her Buffy) recently asked me if I could help her and her husband (let’s call him Angel) determine if “buying years back” from Angel’s pension would be worth it. For those of you unfamiliar with the concept of “buying years back”, it basically means under certain circumstances a worker can pay the pension fund to add years onto their final pension calculation. I only learned of the concept of “buying years” after starting this blog. Although the concept appears common in many European retirement systems, and the Canadian national system; the feature is reserved for public pension systems at the local, state, and (non-military) federal level in the U.S. The worker usually qualifies through special circumstances like prior military service (that fell short of pension eligibility), or previous participation in a separate public pension system (e.g. a teacher who moves from one school system to another).

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The Pension Series (Part 16): VA Disability

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Friendship Is Rare

Does anyone have a friend that dates back to first grade? I don’t mean an acquaintance either. I mean someone that’s been there almost your entire life through thick and thin. Someone who is more like a brother or a sister than a friend. I’m happy to report that I got one. I’m also happy to report that he decided to write an article for my blog!

Now, I believe it’s good etiquette that people who host blogs introduce anyone who writes a guest post. In fact, that’s what Darrow Kirkpatrick did for me when I wrote Part 8 of the Pension Series for his blog. However, in this case, my friend interwove his story into the blog post. So instead of a long-winded introduction, I’ll simply say:

Here’s a great post on the tax benefits of VA disability from a best friend of mine that I’ve known since 1982!

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The Pension Series (Part 15): The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation (PBGC)

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Rushin’ Headlong

PBGC

Wrong type of rushin’

It’s time to take on the somewhat controversial topic of the PBGC. I touched upon it already in several previous posts. In fact, I mentioned it as early as Part 1 of the Pension Series, and as recently as Post 14. Yet, I never tackled it head-on; so it feels like I’m overdue for an article on the PBGC specifically. I was half-hoping someone in my Facebook Group had experience with it because primary sources are always best when researching a topic. However, given the typical conditions attached to the PBGC’s intervention in a pension fund, it’s better that no one has.

Now, for those of you who are thinking, “PBGC? WTF is the PBGC?”, I hear you. I departed from my typical pattern with this post. Normally I warm up my audience with a nice long intro that culminates in an explanation of the topic at hand. However, I dispensed with the niceties this time. With that said, it’s probably best if I at least explain what the PBGC is for anyone who doesn’t know or doesn’t remember. Continue reading →