The Pension Series (Part 11) : Pension Lump Sum Case Study — Updated

Substantive Revision

This is a substantive revision to the original Pension Series Part 11 article I published on 18 JAN 2018. I updated this article because I have a new method for calculating the Total Dollar Value (TDV) of pensions that do not possess a Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA). The new method is far more accurate than the old method, so I am updating all articles in which I used the old method. That said, the new formula didn’t change the results of this case study because the estimated value of the pension annuities on offer increased vice decreased. As a result, the new method only strengthened the recommendation I made for the ChooseFI listener to concentrate on comparing the difference in value between her $75,740 lump sum offer and the lifetime annuity starting at age 60.

Any additions I made to the text are in blue. Sentences from the old version of this article that discuss my old TDV method are ~~struck through~~. I only used the feature a few times in the text, mostly to replace the old TDV steps with the new. As a result, the article itself remains fairly coherent. Continue reading →

Debate Club Round 2: Risk, Rationality, and Efficiency

Posted on 09-May-18 by Grumpus

Welcome Back Debate Fans!

Are you ready for Grumpus to grumble about the concept of investing the Emergency Fund (EF) in equities?

Or should I say “GGGGGRRRRUUUUMMMMBBBLLLLEEE” in my best sport’s announcer’s voice?

A Quick Recap

I’m back with another round of Debate Club. I hope everyone enjoyed round one. Just to re-cap, ChooseFI episode 66 prompted this series of articles in response to the idea of investing an EF. In episode 66, and the follow-up episode 66R, Brad and Jonathan (the hosts) enthusiastically endorsed Big Ern’s (the guest’s) idea that the traditional EF, invested in some sort of cash or cash-equivalent account, was a bad move. Instead, all three agreed it made more sense that a person invest their EF in equities.

In response, I argued in my first article of this series that Episode 66 lacked nuance and suffered from a mistaken definition of the EF. In other words, Ern, Jonathan, and Brad set up a strawman argument and easily knocked it down. By the end of the first article, I created what I felt was a level playing field on which to engage in a debate about the merits and drawbacks of their argument. Thus, I moved on to the second article. Continue reading →

The Gap Number Method in … ACTION!

Posted on 14-January-18 by Grumpus

Click Bait

Like what I did there with the title? I created what’s called click bait. Most of the time my titles are boring, other times they are obscure. This time though I created an “action” title to capture readers’ interest in the Gap Number Method, because it gained some recent publicity. That’s about as creative as I get, adding the word “action” in all caps to a title.

How’s that for action? Mrs. Grumpus hiking in Kauai

Yes, I know. You’re wondering how, with only two readers who aren’t related to me, did I gain any publicity? Well, it turns out I have a face built for radio — or podcasting as the case may be. Not so sure about the voice though.

In any case, on a recent (and so far my only) podcast interview on ChooseFI, the hosts asked me to explain my concept of the Gap Number. For those of you who need a refresher on the Gap Number, you can find the post where I coined the term here. In general, the Gap Number is the difference between your fixed income in retirement and your expenses. Expressed mathematically it looks like: Continue reading →