Howdy Folks! Friend of the blog, Chris Pascale, slipped me this article a few weeks ago to tide everyone over until I get another break from my master’s program. He took my Worth vs. Worth It decision process (which I developed for the pension decision and showcase in The Golden Albatross book) and applied it to his decision to replace his family’s van. Whereas my original article explained the theory, this post shows you the math. It’s a quick and easy read that will help you the next time you consider buying a car. It was worth my time to publish, and I believe it’s worth your time to read it.
Considering that I’m publishing this article during the COVID-19 Pandemic, I want to take a few paragraphs to acknowledge that these are troubled times without turning this into an article exclusively about the pandemic. As COVID-19 causes mass lock-downs and lay-offs all over the world, it’s forcing people to examine what their jobs and careers mean, especially if they no longer have one. Looking past the immediate onset of events, many are also questioning what employment will look like in a post-pandemic world with no vaccine close at hand. On the surface, then, it seems like an awkward time to publish an academic study of pension lump-sum buyout offers, which many people associate with the retirement end of a pensionable career.
Let me look into my crystal ball. I hope we can look back in a year and say I was wrong.
However, if the economic impact of the pandemic continues to suppress interest rates and cause significant amounts of market volatility, or a prolonged bear market, it will weaken many pension funds, similar to 2008 and 2009. Some will even enter the dreaded death spiral that I covered in Part 20 of the Pension Series. Under these circumstances, I’d expect lump-sum buyout offers to proliferate as pension funds de-risk to shore-up their finances. The two main methods for de-risking are lump-sum buyout offers and the same sort of Pension Risk Transfers (PRTs) I examined in Part 14 of the Pension Series. Therefore, it’s reasonable to assume that with more lump sums on offer more employees will take them, especially if they believe their pension funds are in the type of trouble I outline in Part 1 of the Pension Series.
Hey folks! I hope everyone is staying safe and sane out there during the COVID-19 pandemic. Grumpus Familias is safely ensconced at our new home in Nelson, New Zealand. We love the place despite the nationwide COVID-19 lockdown. I attached a picture of the snow-capped mountains of Mordor that we can see from the hill we live on as proof.
However, more on life in NZ in future posts, because I have another great guest post to share from Chris Pascale. Today’s topic is Making Bold Adjustments which fits perfectly as a subject for this blog. I hope you agree.
In case you’re a new reader, or just don’t remember, Chris is a Marine Corps veteran, a friend of the blog, and also an author. In addition to that, he helped me BIG time by editing my forthcoming book, The Golden Albatross, which I’m happy to announce that ChooseFI Media will publish in June! Stay tuned for more announcements soon.
Concept art from the book! It’s so close to release, I can smell that new book smell.
Back to saying great thing about Chris, though! He is interested in many of the same things I am like personal finance, pension hacking, and family time. Yet, he looks at things differently than me, which means he always has a fresh angle or new topic in mind for the blog. You can check out his other guest posts by going to the Article Index. One more thing, as with all other guest posts on the blog, I supplied the pictures, captions, and what hopefully passes as comic relief.
For more than nine months I’ve promised several readers an article covering the geoarbitrage potential behind Grumpus Familias’ pending move to New Zealand — which I’m calling “Kiwi Arbitrage” in honor of the beloved flightless bird native to New Zealand. Yet, for one reason or another, I kept putting-off that particular task. In other words, I procrastinated. That’s something of an Olympic sport in certain parts of my life.
That said, I had several good reasons for procrastinating this time around. The most legitimate was the lack of approved entry visas. I didn’t want to waste time writing an article on New Zealand only for some reason to appear that would prevent us from moving. If you don’t think that was a realistic possibility, then you obviously haven’t read about my lifetime of Charlie Brown-like luck.
Alas, I can procrastinate no longer. Grumpus Familias’ visas arrived several weeks ago and no major obstacles sprang out of the military retirement process. As a result, flights and movers are booked and Mrs. Grumpus and I are busy selling off or donating a large fraction of our worldly possessions that we can’t or don’t want to take with us. While we haven’t “burnt the boats” just yet, we are close — which means this move is on like the proverbial simian made famous by ColecoVision! Continue reading →
Happy Thanksgiving to all my U.S. readers! After a long hiatus, I’m back to writing new blog posts. My return just happens to coincide with my favorite American holiday and is in time for my annual Thanksgiving post. Fittingly, I have a long list of reasons to be thankful this year, some of which I will discuss in this article and some of which I will discuss in future ones. But, first things first. Does anyone know how much work it takes to properly retire from the U.S. military after 20 years of service?
The Grumpus Maximus household has a lot to be thankful again for this year.
I can reliably report that it takes a lot of effort if you want to do it correctly. Between Veteran’s Administration (VA) medical appointments, retirement paperwork, turnover with my relief, and a plethora of other tasks, my last few months of active duty just flew by! And then like that, it was over. I say that because in the last month I started Terminal Leave and hosted my retirement ceremony. Continue reading →
This is a substantive revision to the original Pension Series Part 11 article I published on 18 JAN 2018. I updated this article because I have a new method for calculating the Total Dollar Value (TDV) of pensions that do not possess a Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA). The new method is far more accurate than the old method, so I am updating all articles in which I used the old method. That said, the new formula didn’t change the results of this case study because the estimated value of the pension annuities on offer increased vice decreased. As a result, the new method only strengthened the recommendation I made for the ChooseFI listener to concentrate on comparing the difference in value between her $75,740 lump sum offer and the lifetime annuity starting at age 60.
Any additions I made to the text are in blue. Sentences from the old version of this article that discuss my old TDV method are struck through. I only used the feature a few times in the text, mostly to replace the old TDV steps with the new. As a result, the article itself remains fairly coherent. Continue reading →
This is a substantive revision to the original Pension Series Part 13 article I published on 04 FEB 2018. I updated this article because I have a new method for calculating the Total Dollar Value (TDV) of pensions that do not possess a Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA). The new method is far more accurate than the old method, so I am updating all articles in which I used the old method. That said, the new formula didn’t change the results of this case study because the estimated value of the pension increased, instead of decreased. As a result, it only strengthened the argument for Ms. Money Penny to stick with the lifetime annuity.
The major changes for this article are in the spreadsheet, not in the text itself. If you downloaded and used the old spreadsheet, you should delete it and download the updated version. Any additions I made to the text are blue, and I only used the strikethrough feature a few times in the text, mostly to replace the old TDV with the new sum. As a result, the article itself remains fairly coherent. Continue reading →
This is a substantive revision to the original Pension Series Part 19 article I published on 23 June 2019. I updated this article because I have a new method for calculating the Total Dollar Value (TDV) of pensions that do not possess a Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA). The new method is far more accurate than the old method, so I am updating all articles in which I used the old method.
I notified BrewDog (the subject of this article) and provided him with updated Master Pension Calculator spreadsheets that utilize my new method. I did this because the TDV of his no COLA pension changed significantly when I used the new formula. As a result, I also updated the two spreadsheets embedded in this article and some of the text. If you downloaded the old spreadsheets, delete them, and download the new spreadsheets with the new formula. The text changes are noted in blue below and include strike throughs of the original article’s verbiage when needed. I kept the italicized format for the verbiage cut and pasted from newer emails between BrewDog and myself.
My apologies for any inconvenience this update may cause, or already has caused. I’m well aware that the updated version of this article no longer reads as clean and easy as the original post. However, I’m committed to ensuring the information shared on this blog is accurate. As a result, when new circumstances alter the accuracy of an old post, I feel obliged to update it, even at the expense of readability.
If you want more information on why I updated the TDV formula for no COLA pensions, you can go to Part 4 of the Pension Series for the abridged version. That is the source article for all my TDV calculations, and as such I updated it first. If you’d rather read a more in-depth explanation about the impacts of inflation, and the correct way to incorporate it into TDV calculations, then you’ll need to wait for my book, “The Golden Albatross: How To Determine If Your Pension Is Worth It“. It’s currently scheduled to be published in early 2020 by ChooseFI publishing.
This is a substantive revision to the original article I published on 01 October 2017 entitled “The Pension Series (Part 4): Total Dollar Value (TDV) of Your Pension.” I am making this substantive revision because I have updated the formula to calculate the Total Dollar Value (TDV) for pensions without a Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA).
In my two-and-a-half years of blogging, this is only the second major revision I’ve made to an article. However, as a result of updating the formula, it will not be my last. Several other articles in which I attempt to calculate the TDV of people’s pensions also need to be changed. I will update and re-publish those articles, much as I did with this one, with notifications to all my readers. But, since this article explains TDV calculations of no COLA pensions, I needed to start with this one.Continue reading →
Hey! Over here. It’s me, Captain Obvious. I’m one of Grumpus Maximus’s many alter egos. Kind of like that guy from the movie Glass, but all good, no beasts. Don’t tell him, but I snagged the keyboard when he wasn’t looking. I wanted to let everyone know that stock market volatility is back. You already knew that? Of course you did, that’s why I’m called Captain Obvious. What you may not have noticed is that the volatility is spreading. It’s in the bond market now as well as the stock market. Even the U.S. housing market is starting to tremble in certain places.
I told GM that he should’ve written about volatility months ago, but he said too many Financial Independence (FI) bloggers were already writing about it. Plus, he hadn’t taken the time to determine if volatility posed any kind of risk to people’s pensions, or the pension funds that back them. I suspect he was just being lazy. Either that or too busy with his retirement plans to care about all three of his loyal readers. Well, I’m here to tell you that I finally convinced him to research the issue and write a post. Just remember that, when you leave your comments at the bottom of the page. Captain Obvious, out!
