Tag Archives: Risk

The Pension Couch: Replacing Pension Income

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Back in Action

I’m back with another edition of the Pension Couch. I produce Pension Couch articles from edited and sanitized exchanges with readers who ask me defined benefit (DB) pension questions. It’s a way for me to create posts with useful pension-related information without the additional work required to write one from scratch. In this edition, I answer a reader’s “what if” question about replacing lost pension income by taking a higher-paying non-pensionable job. As a question, it fits well with this blog’s stay-or-go Golden Albatross theme. Therefore, I believe it’s worth your time.

This article’s request came from a reader who I called Kai. He specifically asked how much he’d need to save and invest at a new non-pensionable job to replace lost annual pension income from his current pensionable job… if he decided to leave six years earlier than planned. On the face of it, that’s a straightforward question. The answer, however, required modeling his retirement savings and investment options and then determining if they could replace the potential lost pension income.

Readers ask me some form of the “replacing pension income” question a lot, which tells me two things. First, many readers have contemplated leaving their often lower-salaried pensionable jobs for higher salaried non-pensionable jobs. Second, many readers also understand these scenarios involve trade-offs connected to their pension’s ultimate value in retirement. But, as just mentioned, mathematically modeling these “what if” questions can be complicated. Fortunately, in this article, I demonstrate how to determine if replacing pension income is feasible without resorting to complex math formulas. Instead, I use a free website and free retirement planning software, which you can easily replicate, should you need to answer the same question. Continue reading →

The Pension Series (Part 30): Pension Maximization

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Pension Maximization

Helping pensionable workers determine the value of their defined benefit (DB) pension to make well-informed Golden Albatross decisions is the raison d’être for this website. Thus, I write most of my articles for pensionable workers trying to determine whether staying for their DB pension is worth it. However, those aren’t the only articles I write. Although much smaller in number, I also publish articles for pensionable workers who decide to stay. If a unifying theme to those articles exists, it’s pension maximization.

What’s pension maximization? In practical terms, pension maximization ensures your pension’s positive impact in retirement is as significant as possible. You maximize your pension by taking active steps during your pensionable career. My Gap Number, Roth vs. Traditional, buying back years, and pension geoarbitrage articles provide examples of actionable steps pensioners can take. That said, unlike my Golden Albatross-themed articles, I never laid out a framework for pension maximization. In other words, after a worker decides to stay, I never answered the simple “now what?” question.

The remainder of this article, and its follow-on, layout my framework for answering “now what?” I call this framework Grumpus Maximization.

Yes, it’s a somewhat cheesy metaphor. But, Grumpus Maximization is a catchphrase designed to stick, much like the Golden Albatross. Who knows? It might even aid future marketing attempts like printing t-shirts with “Got Pension?” on the front and “Get Maximized @ grumpusmaximus.com” on the back …

That’s not helping, is it? Fine, I’ll sidebar the marketing discussion for now. Continue reading →

The Pension Series (Part 27): The Golden Albatross Pension Survey

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Would You Like To Take A Pension Survey?

I loved the Animaniacs cartoon when I was a teenager, especially one episode called “Survey Ladies.” In it, two ladies run around a shopping mall hounding the Animaniacs screaming, “would you like to take a survey?” and asking crazy questions like, “would you eat beans with George Wendt?” For those of you who don’t know, George Wendt was Norm in the sitcom Cheers.

That’s how I felt in March 2021 as I administered a pension survey to US-based pensionable workers and retirees from several personal finance Facebook groups and my blog’s email distribution list. I ran around (virtually) trying to convince pensionable workers and retirees to take my survey and answer many seemingly crazy pension-related questions. Sadly, I couldn’t figure out a way to work George Wendt or beans into it. Continue reading →

The Pension Series (Part 22): Analyzing Public Pension Plan Safety

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How Safe Is My Pension?

Pension plan safety is one of the most popular and relevant topics among the potential pensioners who read my blog. It’s popular because much like Social Security, chronic underfunding of certain types of pensions receives a lot of bad press in the U.S. As a result, many people think that all pension plans are circling the drain. While that isn’t true, as with most things in life, determining the truth about your pension plan’s safety is a somewhat subjective and complicated journey. However, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t strive to answer the question, especially if the Golden Albatross has trapped you in its maw.

Pension plan safety

Instead of a circling the drain, how about a black hole sun?

There’s a reason why I started the Pension Series with the topic of pension safety. I said it then, and restated it more recently in my book; no issue cuts straight to the chase quicker than pension plan safety. That’s especially true when trying to determine if staying for a pension is worth it. If you are facing the gut-wrenching stay or leave decision at your pensionable job, and you decide there’s a high probability the pension won’t be there at retirement, then you may not require any further analysis. In other words, the realization that the pension won’t be there as promised effectively ends the internal debate. Continue reading →

The Pension Series (Part 19): Pension Annuity vs. Lump Sum Analysis (Again) — Updated

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Substantive Revision

This is a substantive revision to the original Pension Series Part 19 article I published on 23 June 2019. I updated this article because I have a new method for calculating the Total Dollar Value (TDV) of pensions that do not possess a Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA). The new method is far more accurate than the old method, so I am updating all articles in which I used the old method.

I notified BrewDog (the subject of this article) and provided him with updated Master Pension Calculator spreadsheets that utilize my new method. I did this because the TDV of his no COLA pension changed significantly when I used the new formula. As a result, I also updated the two spreadsheets embedded in this article and some of the text. If you downloaded the old spreadsheets, delete them, and download the new spreadsheets with the new formula. The text changes are noted in blue below and include strike throughs of the original article’s verbiage when needed. I kept the italicized format for the verbiage cut and pasted from newer emails between BrewDog and myself. 

My apologies for any inconvenience this update may cause, or already has caused. I’m well aware that the updated version of this article no longer reads as clean and easy as the original post. However, I’m committed to ensuring the information shared on this blog is accurate. As a result, when new circumstances alter the accuracy of an old post, I feel obliged to update it, even at the expense of readability.      

If you want more information on why I updated the TDV formula for no COLA pensions, you can go to Part 4 of the Pension Series for the abridged version. That is the source article for all my TDV calculations, and as such I updated it first. If you’d rather read a more in-depth explanation about the impacts of inflation, and the correct way to incorporate it into TDV calculations, then you’ll need to wait for my book, “The Golden Albatross: How To Determine If Your Pension Is Worth It“. It’s currently scheduled to be published in early 2020 by ChooseFI publishing.

Continue reading →

The Pension Series (Part 20): Pensions, Volatility, and Risk

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Pssssst

Hey! Over here. It’s me, Captain Obvious. I’m one of Grumpus Maximus’s many alter egos. Kind of like that guy from the movie Glass, but all good, no beasts. Don’t tell him, but I snagged the keyboard when he wasn’t looking. I wanted to let everyone know that stock market volatility is back. You already knew that? Of course you did, that’s why I’m called Captain Obvious. What you may not have noticed is that the volatility is spreading. It’s in the bond market now as well as the stock market. Even the U.S. housing market is starting to tremble in certain places.

I told GM that he should’ve written about volatility months ago, but he said too many Financial Independence (FI) bloggers were already writing about it. Plus, he hadn’t taken the time to determine if volatility posed any kind of risk to people’s pensions, or the pension funds that back them. I suspect he was just being lazy. Either that or too busy with his retirement plans to care about all three of his loyal readers. Well, I’m here to tell you that I finally convinced him to research the issue and write a post. Just remember that, when you leave your comments at the bottom of the page. Captain Obvious, out!

Continue reading →

Trade War Part Quatre: 3-to-9 Year Investment Mitigation Strategies

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Last Call

This is the last article in my Trump Trade War series. In it, I address investment strategies to mitigate what I perceive as the worst potential effects of the Trump Trade War for investors on a three to nine-year investment horizon. This is by far the hardest time period for which to devise investment strategies due to the uncertainty surrounding the next potential recession and Bear Market. However, I felt I owed it to my readers who’ve stuck with this series thus far, and to those who also find themselves within this investing window. Continue reading →

Trade War Part Trois: Two and Ten-Year Investment Mitigation Strategies

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Trump Trade War Investment Mitigation Strategies

No trademark long-winded Grumpus Maximus preamble for this article. However, since this is part three in a series about the Trump Trade War’s potential impact on your bottom line; I suggest you read parts one and two prior to reading this. You’ll need the context from the previous two articles for this post to make sense. In the second article, specifically, I explained Risk, Risk Tolerance, and Risk Capacity. I also laid out my investment philosophy. As you’ll see in the next few articles, I refer to Risk and my investment philosophy continuously.

Assuming everyone is up to speed, I suppose it’s time to talk Trump Trade War Investment Mitigation Strategies (T-TWIMS), right? Hang on while I run out and register the trademark on T-TWIMS … OK, I’m back! I’ll assume that’s a “yes” since you’re still reading. Well then, what’s your investing timeline or time horizon? In other words, when will you need the money? Continue reading →

Trade War Part Deux: Risk Mitigation

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Trump’s Trade War

Risk Mitigation

What’s the worst that could happen?

Hey! How’s it going? In my previous post on President Trump’s Trade War, and its potential to impact your wallet and retirement, I mentioned a future post where I would outline prudent risk mitigation measures an investor might take. Given the fact that the main front of the Trump Trade War kicked off for reals with China on 06 July 2018, it seemed appropriate to pen further articles now. I’ve seen nothing in the intervening days to change my gloomy outlook. In fact, I may have underestimated how bad this situation might get.

I’m getting ahead of myself though. For those of you who missed the first Trump Trade War article, you can find it here. In it, I outlined what I thought was a significant misunderstanding of macroeconomics and strategy (or is that strategery?) within the Trump administration. I showed how the steps they’ve taken on tariffs, free-trade, taxes, and immigration seemed specifically designed to make the next recession worse. I also opined that the administration’s actions may be hastening the onset of the next recession through inflationary pressures. While I bemoaned the idea of a three front trade war, two of which are against some of our closest allies and trading partners; I didn’t necessarily dismiss the need for action on China. Only the method. Continue reading →

The Pension Series (Part 15): The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation (PBGC)

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Rushin’ Headlong

PBGC

Wrong type of rushin’

It’s time to take on the somewhat controversial topic of the PBGC. I touched upon it already in several previous posts. In fact, I mentioned it as early as Part 1 of the Pension Series, and as recently as Post 14. Yet, I never tackled it head-on; so it feels like I’m overdue for an article on the PBGC specifically. I was half-hoping someone in my Facebook Group had experience with it because primary sources are always best when researching a topic. However, given the typical conditions attached to the PBGC’s intervention in a pension fund, it’s better that no one has.

Now, for those of you who are thinking, “PBGC? WTF is the PBGC?”, I hear you. I departed from my typical pattern with this post. Normally I warm up my audience with a nice long intro that culminates in an explanation of the topic at hand. However, I dispensed with the niceties this time. With that said, it’s probably best if I at least explain what the PBGC is for anyone who doesn’t know or doesn’t remember. Continue reading →