Why I Trust My Plan … For Now

Procrastination Pays Off

Plan

Failure to properly plan …

I’ve had a draft version of this article sitting in my inbox for some time. It never gelled, so I left it alone. However, a blogging friend and mentor of mine, Doug Nordman, recently published an excellent article at his blog The Military Guide entitled “Don’t Buy A Home When You Leave Active Duty“. The article challenged several of my planning assumptions and acted as a catalyst to complete this post.

I consider challenges to my retirement plan a good thing. They force me to re-examine and update it as I gain more knowledge, and as facts on the ground change. As such, this article isn’t so much a riposte to Doug’s article, as it is an acknowledgment of it. It’s a confirmation that Doug’s article contained great points which forced me to re-examine my planning assumptions, but despite the challenge, my plan still passes scrutiny. It’s a healthy, Bayesian inference exercise that everyone should conduct with their plan routinely. Continue reading

The Pension Series (Part 12): More Pension Lump Sum Analysis (Updated)

Nerd Alert!

This article is a follow-up on the lump sum case study I conducted for the ChooseFI listener, Tess, in Part 11 of the Pension Series. If you missed it, that case study also aired as Episode 58R on the ChooseFI Podcast. I mentally debated if I should make this Part 11a considering the links between the two articles.  However, given this article’s length, and the alternate pension lump sum analysis method it outlines, I decided it warrants its own part in the series.

I’ll warn you now, this article is another deep dive into the world of pension lump sum offers. It won’t be my last either. Pension lump sum analysis is a rabbit hole. As I pointed out in my previous article, there’s no one correct method. A lot depends on what the pensioner values and the questions they are trying to answer. Proper analysis is also based on the strings attached to either the lump sum or the annuities.

pension lump sum analysis

Hello? Can anyone up there hear me? I got stuck down here analyzing my pension lump sum!

Fortunately, as a result of my appearance on ChooseFI 58R, several people reached out to discuss methods of calculating pension value and conducting lump sum analysis. We are currently in the process of compiling a spreadsheet with many of those methods baked in. It’s not quite ready though. So, for now, you have to put up with another wordy pension lump sum analysis from yours truly. Forewarned is forearmed. Continue reading

Mental Health: Sad Work And Stuff

I Am Grumpus Max-bob-bomb …

…and I am here to make you think about work and get sad and stuff.

Part of the side effects from my PTS means the wrong damn song, movie, book, or thought can be problematic from time to time. This happened recently. While I was typing an article about pensions and streaming some music, a sad song played over my headphones. That’s not always an issue, except I’d never heard this song before, so I didn’t know to skip it. The song’s subject related to one of the causes of my PTS. As a result, I scrambled for the volume control before tears erupted uncontrollably. Alas, I was too slow. As a result, I spent the next few hours trying to control the flood of emotions that washed over me.

Unlike my previous articles on my mental health and job struggles, this article isn’t about anger. It’s about sadness. In true Grumpus Maximus form though, the article is still relevant to the topics of personal finance, careers, and the Golden Albatross. Yet, much like my Worth vs. “Worth It” article, this story is raw and personal. Even more so than my previous article in fact. If that isn’t your thing, I completely understand and don’t hold it against you. Click away now.

For those who choose to stay, consider yourself warned… Continue reading

The Pension Series (Part 5): Survivorship (Updated)

Substantive Correction

This is an updated version to my article originally posted 04 October 2017. This version includes a substantive correction. The previous version of the article failed to accurately describe all the calculations required when comparing a pension with an inflation-linked Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) to life insurance. I noticed my omission today and reworked the affected paragraphs. I also took the opportunity to clean up some grammar. You will see substantive changes noted in red text. I believe the changes make the comparisons between life insurance and survivorship more competitive.

The incomplete calculations I described in the previous version of my article appeared weighted towards survivorship. That was not my intent. Since the intent of the article changed, and I believe in full disclosure with my readers; I felt this mistake warranted a revision with new publish date.

This is a first for me in the blogging sphere, although in the military we routinely  strive for this level of transparency when an official report, memorandum, or instruction contains a major mistake. The primary purpose for issuing a correction is to prevent anyone from acting on erroneous information. It’s also important that the historical record reflect accurate information. I’ve decided to hold myself to the same standard on this blog.

As a result, I advise anyone who read and used the methods described in the previous version of this article to read this update and adjust your calculations accordingly. While I apologize for the inconvenience, and always strive for 100% accuracy in my articles; I would remind everyone I’m not a professional. Nor am I considering your case specifically. No matter how comfortable you are with your retirement numbers and plan; it’s always best to run your them by a professional like a fee-only Certified Financial Planner who adheres to the fiduciary standard.  Again my apologies.

Survivorship

KJH, we honor the fallen in the Grumpus Maximus family.

Death Sucks

In late Summer 2003, a member of my unit and one of its seasoned mentors was killed in the early days of the Insurgency in Iraq. We were both part of a tight-knit group of young officers that worked and played hard. While I would not have called him a close friend, many in our group did, and I often sought advice and guidance from him. His death was a blow to everyone in our group and the unit as a whole. Nothing was the same after it. Most of us were not prepared mentally and we all took it personally. Each of us dealt with his death in our own way, and I am sad to say it splintered the group in ways I never could’ve foreseen. Continue reading

The Gap Number Method in … ACTION!

Click Bait

Like what I did there with the title? I created what’s called click bait. Most of the time my titles are boring, other times they are obscure. This time though I created an “action” title to capture readers’ interest in the Gap Number Method, because it gained some recent publicity. That’s about as creative as I get, adding the word “action” in all caps to a title.

Gap Number Method

How’s that for action? Mrs. Grumpus hiking in Kauai

Yes, I know. You’re wondering how, with only two readers who aren’t related to me, did I gain any publicity? Well, it turns out I have a face built for radio — or podcasting as the case may be.  Not so sure about the voice though.

In any case, on a recent (and so far my only) podcast interview on ChooseFI, the hosts asked me to explain my concept of the Gap Number. For those of you who need a refresher on the Gap Number, you can find the post where I coined the term here. In general, the Gap Number is the difference between your fixed income in retirement and your expenses. Expressed mathematically it looks like: Continue reading

Track Your Money (Part 4): Mint All Breakdown

Hidy Ho (Math) Campers!

As a result of the problems identified in my previous article with Mint.com’s annual “Net Savings Over Time” report, I decided to nerd out on money tracking again. Apologies to those of you who don’t enjoy these articles as much as some of my others. However, much like Darrow Kirkpatrick did with retirement calculators, I believe it’s important to understand the pluses and minuses associated with popular money tracking software. This is especially crucial considering the importance I place on tracking money, to begin with.

I spent several days prior to writing this article improving the fidelity of my data in my Mint.com account. I also rebuilt my entire 2017 financial year in Quicken. Doing so allowed me to total my net savings for the year in Quicken and verify if I made any mistakes with my Mint calculations.

Mint

The now infamous Net Income Over Time report display

To refresh everyone’s memory, when I initially ran Grumpus Familias’s net savings for 2017 through Mint as part of my annual end of year fiscal review, it reported we saved $70.5K. However, I didn’t trust that number due to my inability to verify whether or not Mint accounted for our annual Roth IRA transfer. The program, as far I could tell, didn’t allow for that determination. After spending a few days double checking entries, modifying several transaction labels, and re-displaying reports; Mint now shows an annual net savings of $69.5K. Obviously, I had approximately $1K of transactions mislabeled in my previous report. However, I still cannot verify exactly how Mint determines expenses and income for this report. As a result, I don’t trust this number any more than the previous one. Continue reading

Track Your Money (Part 3): Passive Tracking

A Passive Tracking Experiment

Passive Tracking

I’m ready to blow up this lab whenever you are!

In case you can’t tell from my title, this article is a follow-on to my previous two “Tracking Your Money” posts. In the first article, I reviewed my historical use of various software applications to track my money over the past 20 years or so. In the second, my brother (Grumpus Brotherus the Younger) reviewed the software application called You Need A Budget (YNAB).

If you did not read the first post in this series, you probably should. I don’t just say that because my brother’s post sucked (it did), and I think mine is much better (it was), or I want the extra site traffic (I do). No, I say that because I actually made a few worthwhile points in the post … if I do say so myself. However, if you’re unwilling or unable to go to the post, let me provide you a re-cap. Continue reading

The Pension Series (Part 10): Geoarbitrage and Pensions

Where in the World …

geoarbitrage

… is Grumpus Maximus?

In Part 9 of the Pension Series a reader’s question prompted me to research the interplay between the U.S. Federal tax code and pensions. My reader, Mr. Yankee, wanted to know what options existed to minimize Federal taxes when pension payments started for him and his wife, Mrs. Doodle. I found a few specific instances to defray some Federal tax, but nothing major. Turns out Mr. Yankee already knew the most powerful tax options available to him. What did Mr. Yankee know? He knew that in the U.S., geography mattered when it came to taxes — specifically at the State level.

For my one non-related international reader, it may seem strange, but in the U.S. we tax income more than once. We typically tax it at the Federal and the State level, and sometimes even at the local level. Furthermore, pension payments typically count as income no matter the source. As I chronicled in Part 9 of the Pension Series, everyone who receives a pension is (typically) subjected to Federal tax. However, not every State in the Union taxes income. Nor does every State tax pension payments as income. Continue reading

Post-Retirement Planning (Part 1): Teamwork

A Team Grumpus Victory Lap

This past week was a big one in the short history of the Grumpus Maximus blog. My first guest post on a much bigger website drove a record amount of traffic to mine. The guest post was a result of collaboration between myself and Darrow Kirkpatrick of www.caniretireyet.com. I am happy to consider Darrow one of my two main mentors in this blogging adventure. My introduction to Darrow was facilitated by my other mentor, Doug “Nords” Nordman, who founded the Military Guide blog. Darrow and Nords are both great guys, not only generous with their time but knowledge as well. Together they make up my team in the blogging sphere. Whether or not they know it, their willingness to help me succeed translates into a special kind of teamwork for which I am immeasurably grateful.

Teamwork

Da Komrades, we built this victory monument to commemorate your week.

I blogged recently that when I retire from the military, what I will miss most is working with the great men and women I’ve had the honor of serving with and leading. For some reason, I’m the type of person who draws great satisfaction from working successfully together as a team to accomplish goals. The military life, despite its many drawbacks, definitely offers plenty of opportunities for teamwork. While not the only career that offers this opportunity, if teamwork is one of your main motivations in life, I could think of no better occupation to enter.

The Post-Retirement Teamwork Challenge

It remains to be seen if I can successfully translate the satisfaction I derive from teamwork opportunities in my full-time career to retired life. For someone like me who needs the sense of accomplishment which comes with teamwork, it begs the question as to what outlet I will turn to when retired. Certainly, blogging might provide more and bigger opportunities to collaborate, and I look forward to the possibility. Yet, as I stated elsewhere on this blog, I started blogging as a means of therapy and to help a friend plot a path through a Golden Albatross moment towards Financial Independence (FI). I’m not ready to give those reasons up and place all my hope for fulfillment in retirement on blogging. Continue reading

The Pension Series (Part 7): How to Create Your Own COLA

St. George’s Thesis

Build Your Own Cola

“Cry — God for Harry! England and Saint George!”

How was your week? Productive I hope.  I spent most of my spare time drafting my pièce de résistance for the Pension Series as a guest post for one of my favorite blogs and bloggers. I’m excited, so stay tuned for the announcement as to when and where you can find it. Unfortunately, it means I’m short an article because I (stupidly) don’t keep any posts in the bank.

However, I am about to let you in on a little blogging secret.  Facebook provides an endless amount of material to write about. As proof of this point, about 10 days ago George, one of my awesome Golden Albatross Facebook Group members, asked the following sizzler of a question related to pensions and inflation-adjusted Cost of Living Allowance (COLA):

Basically, if my pension is say $50k [a year] with no COLA provided by my employer, what do I have to have saved in an IRA to be able to grow my pension with cost of living for the next 30 years? (50k+4%)+4%)+4%)etc. For 30 years…)
Continue reading