The Pension Series (Part 13): The Master Pension Value Calculator (Updated)

Substantive Revision

This is a substantive revision to the original Pension Series Part 13 article I published on 04 FEB 2018. I updated this article because I have a new method for calculating the Total Dollar Value (TDV) of pensions that do not possess a Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA). The new method is far more accurate than the old method, so I am updating all articles in which I used the old method. That said, the new formula didn’t change the results of this case study because the estimated value of the pension increased, instead of decreased. As a result, it only strengthened the argument for Ms. Money Penny to stick with the lifetime annuity. 

The major changes for this article are in the spreadsheet, not in the text itself. If you downloaded and used the old spreadsheet, you should delete it and download the updated version. Any additions I made to the text are blue, and I only used the strikethrough feature a few times in the text, mostly to replace the old TDV with the new sum. As a result, the article itself remains fairly coherent.  Continue reading

The Pension Series (Part 19): Pension Annuity vs. Lump Sum Analysis (Again) — Updated

Featured

Substantive Revision

This is a substantive revision to the original Pension Series Part 19 article I published on 23 June 2019. I updated this article because I have a new method for calculating the Total Dollar Value (TDV) of pensions that do not possess a Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA). The new method is far more accurate than the old method, so I am updating all articles in which I used the old method.

I notified BrewDog (the subject of this article) and provided him with updated Master Pension Calculator spreadsheets that utilize my new method. I did this because the TDV of his no COLA pension changed significantly when I used the new formula. As a result, I also updated the two spreadsheets embedded in this article and some of the text. If you downloaded the old spreadsheets, delete them, and download the new spreadsheets with the new formula. The text changes are noted in blue below and include strike throughs of the original article’s verbiage when needed. I kept the italicized format for the verbiage cut and pasted from newer emails between BrewDog and myself. 

My apologies for any inconvenience this update may cause, or already has caused. I’m well aware that the updated version of this article no longer reads as clean and easy as the original post. However, I’m committed to ensuring the information shared on this blog is accurate. As a result, when new circumstances alter the accuracy of an old post, I feel obliged to update it, even at the expense of readability.      

If you want more information on why I updated the TDV formula for no COLA pensions, you can go to Part 4 of the Pension Series for the abridged version. That is the source article for all my TDV calculations, and as such I updated it first. If you’d rather read a more in-depth explanation about the impacts of inflation, and the correct way to incorporate it into TDV calculations, then you’ll need to wait for my book, “The Golden Albatross: How To Determine If Your Pension Is Worth It“. It’s currently scheduled to be published in early 2020 by ChooseFI publishing.

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The Pension Series (Part 20): Pensions, Volatility, and Risk

Pssssst

Hey! Over here. It’s me, Captain Obvious. I’m one of Grumpus Maximus’s many alter egos. Kind of like that guy from the movie Glass, but all good, no beasts. Don’t tell him, but I snagged the keyboard when he wasn’t looking. I wanted to let everyone know that stock market volatility is back. You already knew that? Of course you did, that’s why I’m called Captain Obvious. What you may not have noticed is that the volatility is spreading. It’s in the bond market now as well as the stock market. Even the U.S. housing market is starting to tremble in certain places.

I told GM that he should’ve written about volatility months ago, but he said too many Financial Independence (FI) bloggers were already writing about it. Plus, he hadn’t taken the time to determine if volatility posed any kind of risk to people’s pensions, or the pension funds that back them. I suspect he was just being lazy. Either that or too busy with his retirement plans to care about all three of his loyal readers. Well, I’m here to tell you that I finally convinced him to research the issue and write a post. Just remember that, when you leave your comments at the bottom of the page. Captain Obvious, out!

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The Military Retirement Process: Lessons Learned (Part 1)

For the Military Members in the Audience

When I first announced that I was officially retiring in 2019 via the blog and my Facebook group, the response was overwhelmingly positive. Amidst all those positive responses, Timika Downes, a fellow Financial Independence (FI) blogger, reservist, and FB group member asked me to share lessons I learned throughout the military retirement process. I was non-committal at the time because I had no idea if there would be anything worth sharing. However, now that I’m through the first phase of that process, I realize I have a few nuggets of information worth sharing — especially for military Financially Independent Retire Early (FIRE) seekers like me.

Admittedly some of my lessons are more or less relevant, based on what you want to do after the military. However, any military member contemplating either retirement or transition from Active Duty can take something away from what I’m about to share. Top among those takeaways is this: The Department of Defense (DOD); the Veteran’s Administration (VA); and many state, local, and benevolent organizations have put a lot of effort into ensuring that current active duty military members transition successfully to civilian life.

As a student of history, I’m well aware that the above takeaway was not always true. The VA, and the taxpayers who fund it, have failed to take care of U.S. vets on numerous occasions. As evidence, consider the string of VA scandals outlined by CNN in 2014. Continue reading

The Pension Series (Part 18): Social Security – The People’s Pension

Waffles and Chicken(shit)

I’ve waffled in recent weeks on the need to write a post about Social Security for the Pension Series. On the one hand, since the American form of Social Security pays out in annuity form, it seems like a relevant topic for the Series. Plus, an overwhelming majority of American workers pay into the program. Therefore, it’s the sole remaining Defined Benefit Plan (DBP) that almost all Americans workers still have access to in retirement. Finally, because almost everyone’s eligible for Social Security in America, there’s uncertainty surrounding the future financial viability of the program. That uncertainty alone is enough to justify the need for an article since much of the Pension Series is built around the idea of quantifying the uncertainty surrounding pensions.

On the other hand, there are a lot of drawbacks to writing an article on Social Security. First and foremost, is the sheer number of articles already written about the subject. From books to news articles, to blogs, and podcasts; I doubt there’s a format of media that hasn’t been utilized to discuss Social Security in the USA. That’s partly due to the fact that Social Security is an extremely controversial topic. Since nearly everyone’s entitled to it, nearly everyone has a strong opinion about it. In fact, the government calls it an entitlement, and as an entitlement, it’s earned a reputation as a third rail in American politics — meaning a politician touches it at their own peril much like the electrified third rail in a subway system. Continue reading

The Opposite of Gutting It Out

My Gutting It Out post must have struck a chord with many of my readers. It prompted numerous comments, re-posts, and questions on the Book of Face. It continues to be one of my most read articles, and it even prompted a fellow Financial Independence (FI) blogger to write an article about my article. That’s pretty cool if you ask me, and a fairly large ego stroke too!

However, as popular as that article proved to be, I don’t want anyone to think that “gutting it out” is the only path I advocate. It’s not. Nor could it ever be, since the entire premise which surrounds my self-described Golden Albatross inflection point implies a choice that someone makes to stay or leave a pensionable job. Thus, if some people choose to stay and “gut out” a pensionable job, it means others don’t or won’t. It’s for those contemplating that alternative that I dedicate this post. Continue reading

The Pension Series (Part 17): Buying Years – A Case Study

The Set Up

A reader (let’s call her Buffy) recently asked me if I could help her and her husband (let’s call him Angel) determine if “buying years back” from Angel’s pension would be worth it. For those of you unfamiliar with the concept of “buying years back”, it basically means under certain circumstances a worker can pay the pension fund to add years onto their final pension calculation. I only learned of the concept of “buying years” after starting this blog. Although the concept appears common in many European retirement systems, and the Canadian national system; the feature is reserved for public pension systems at the local, state, and (non-military) federal level in the U.S. The worker usually qualifies through special circumstances like prior military service (that fell short of pension eligibility), or previous participation in a separate public pension system (e.g. a teacher who moves from one school system to another).

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The Pension Series (Part 15): The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation (PBGC)

Rushin’ Headlong

PBGC

Wrong type of rushin’

It’s time to take on the somewhat controversial topic of the PBGC. I touched upon it already in several previous posts. In fact, I mentioned it as early as Part 1 of the Pension Series, and as recently as Post 14. Yet, I never tackled it head-on; so it feels like I’m overdue for an article on the PBGC specifically. I was half-hoping someone in my Facebook Group had experience with it because primary sources are always best when researching a topic. However, given the typical conditions attached to the PBGC’s intervention in a pension fund, it’s better that no one has.

Now, for those of you who are thinking, “PBGC? WTF is the PBGC?”, I hear you. I departed from my typical pattern with this post. Normally I warm up my audience with a nice long intro that culminates in an explanation of the topic at hand. However, I dispensed with the niceties this time. With that said, it’s probably best if I at least explain what the PBGC is for anyone who doesn’t know or doesn’t remember. Continue reading

The Pension Series (Part 14): Pension Risk Transfer

The Prodigal Series Returns

Welcome back to the Pension Series everyone! I hope you didn’t interpret my several month hiatus (from the series) as a lack of interest in the intersection between pensions and Financial Independence (FI). If you did, then let me assure you that I remain committed to the topic. In fact, my Facebook Group members can attest that I typically post one or two articles a week to prompt discussion on the topic of pensions and FI. That said, I must admit after the rush to write and publish parts 11 through 13 of the Pension Series, it took me a while to find more content that met my standards. At this point in the series, I look for topics that I haven’t already addressed; that help my readers navigate the Golden Albatross decision; and/or enable planning for FI using a pension.

The Search Is Over

Luckily, I recently found a few more topics which deserve examination. Several of the latest topics stem from articles I posted in my Facebook Group. In fact, it wasn’t until I posted an article about FedEx transferring a large portion of its pension fund to Met Life in my Facebook Group, that I realized the topic of pension risk transfer deserved an entire article itself.

In the past few months I’ve noted several stories from both the U.S. and U.K. about companies transferring some or all of their pension funds to insurance companies. The FedEx story started a conversation in my Facebook Group about winners and losers in risk transfer scenarios where a pension fund transfers obligations to an insurance company. Between the company who owns the pension fund, the insurance company, and the plan participants; most of the respondents from my group seemed to think the plan participants (i.e. current and future pensioners) lost. I must admit that I agreed.

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The Pension Series (Part 12): More Pension Lump Sum Analysis (Updated)

Nerd Alert!

This article is a follow-up on the lump sum case study I conducted for the ChooseFI listener, Tess, in Part 11 of the Pension Series. If you missed it, that case study also aired as Episode 58R on the ChooseFI Podcast. I mentally debated if I should make this Part 11a considering the links between the two articles.  However, given this article’s length, and the alternate pension lump sum analysis method it outlines, I decided it warrants its own part in the series.

I’ll warn you now, this article is another deep dive into the world of pension lump sum offers. It won’t be my last either. Pension lump sum analysis is a rabbit hole. As I pointed out in my previous article, there’s no one correct method. A lot depends on what the pensioner values and the questions they are trying to answer. Proper analysis is also based on the strings attached to either the lump sum or the annuities.

pension lump sum analysis

Hello? Can anyone up there hear me? I got stuck down here analyzing my pension lump sum!

Fortunately, as a result of my appearance on ChooseFI 58R, several people reached out to discuss methods of calculating pension value and conducting lump sum analysis. We are currently in the process of compiling a spreadsheet with many of those methods baked in. It’s not quite ready though. So, for now, you have to put up with another wordy pension lump sum analysis from yours truly. Forewarned is forearmed. Continue reading