Trump’s Trade War

What’s the worst that could happen?

Hey! How’s it going? In my previous post on President Trump’s Trade War, and its potential to impact your wallet and retirement, I mentioned a future post where I would outline prudent risk mitigation measures an investor might take. Given the fact that the main front of the Trump Trade War kicked off for reals with China on 06 July 2018, it seemed appropriate to pen further articles now. I’ve seen nothing in the intervening days to change my gloomy outlook. In fact, I may have underestimated how bad this situation might get.

I’m getting ahead of myself though. For those of you who missed the first Trump Trade War article, you can find it here. In it, I outlined what I thought was a significant misunderstanding of macroeconomics and strategy (or is that strategery?) within the Trump administration. I showed how the steps they’ve taken on tariffs, free-trade, taxes, and immigration seemed specifically designed to make the next recession worse. I also opined that the administration’s actions may be hastening the onset of the next recession through inflationary pressures. While I bemoaned the idea of a three front trade war, two of which are against some of our closest allies and trading partners; I didn’t necessarily dismiss the need for action on China. Only the method. Continue reading →