Guest Post Time!

Howdy Folks! Friend of the blog, Chris Pascale, slipped me this article a few weeks ago to tide everyone over until I get another break from my master’s program. He took my Worth vs. Worth It decision process (which I developed for the pension decision and showcase in The Golden Albatross book) and applied it to his decision to replace his family’s van. Whereas my original article explained the theory, this post shows you the math. It’s a quick and easy read that will help you the next time you consider buying a car. It was worth my time to publish, and I believe it’s worth your time to read it.

— Grumpus Maximus

“So What, So What’s the Scenario?”

My Honda Odyssey has a worth well above what I would pay for it, meaning it’s not worth it for me to replace

We’ve had 2 vans – a 2000 Dodge Caravan and a 2010 Honda Odyssey. With 171k miles, the Odyssey is due to be replaced. Oil is slowly leaking into the engine and one of the automatic doors malfunctions. It’s wearing out.

But, on the other hand, this old van is supposedly worth about $10,000, which means replacing it with something better would cost more. It leaves me with the following dilemma: Buy a $15,000 van I don’t want, and soon won’t need, that may have problems like I have now, or buy a perfectly good car for much less, but is just too small at the moment.

Using the Worth vs. Worth It theme Grumpus has taught us, the van apparently has a market worth well above what I would want to pay for it, and that means it’s not worth it for me to replace while it runs.

And so, we run with the following plan.

The Following Plan

Every other month the van’s Check Engine light comes on, and when it switches gears the vehicle shudders, so I bring it to my mechanic. He gets the oil out of the engine, switches out the spark plugs, adds a quart, and charges me $30.00. Two months later, we do something similar, but with an oil change.

And that’s it. Repeat until it dies or needs a repair that I deem too much to pay.

The alternative would be to replace the engine for $5,000, which might be a great plan, but not one I plan to execute. My oldest daughter is about to purchase her own vehicle, and will soon be off to college. After much discussion, she has decided to forgo the facet of my Kids on F.I.R.E. plan where she does a year of full-time service before community-college). She’s an adult, so must make her own decisions. As such, she’s looking forward to working again and has decided it would be worth it to jump into a 4-year school, even if she has to pay for it.

Will I Still Need a Van?

When considering upcoming trips I want my oldest to be a part of, the truth is that if I need a van, I can just rent one. Even if I paid $100/day, which I wouldn’t, it would be much cheaper than buying one.

So, yes, I may need a van here and there. No, I do not need to own one.

Mathing It Up

As the dudes at Millennial Revolution say, “you gotta math that shit up,” so here’s some simple math.

A used van I don’t want would cost $15,000. A new engine in the current van I don’t wish to replace would cost $5,000.

I can find a very nice car, like a Honda Civic, that I’d rather have for $8,000.

The insurance on the car would be cheaper. Replacing tires and at least some of the other parts would also be more affordable.

But, the significant savings comes with daily use. A 2010 Odyssey gets 17 mpg in the city, and 25 mpg on the highway. A 2015 Civic earns 31/41 mpg.

If gas costs $2.45/gallon, and I drive half city/half highway for 12,000 miles per year, then the cost per mile is:

$0.114 for the Odyssey, times 12k = $1,368

$0.068 for the Civic, times 12k = $816

In fuel costs, I’d pay $562 more to drive a vehicle I don’t want while paying another $180 for the above-noted maintenance for the oil leak. Not to mention, purchasing more expensive tires when they need replacing in a couple years. On top of this, it’s more expensive to service a van at a car wash.

Calculating the Breakeven

Since I answered the first question – why get rid of the van – let’s move onto the next: when do you break even on buying an $8,000 Civic compared to replacing the engine?

B/E Point: Day Zero.

I can sell the van for at least $3,000 to a fortunate family in a private sale. And that means that the Civic costs about the same as the new engine. There will be sales tax, for which New York’s is exorbitant, but it’s a small price to pay for such an upgrade, and can also be accounted for by selling the van for $4,000, or finding a Civic for $7,200.

Wrapping This Up

After quarantine ends, we’re taking a road trip to Niagara Falls. One thing that surprised me is that renting a minivan costs a little more than a Suburban or Infiniti QX60. Both seat 7, but only one would comfortably transport us and our luggage.

Beyond short rentals, the long-term solution is not an equal replacement, but to ride out the current model with a little extra bi-monthly maintenance. With one heading to college, and another a few years behind her, we’ll soon be a household of 4 most of the year.

By this point I can purchase a 5 to a 7-year-old car with 50,000 miles for well under the cost of a 10-year-old van with little life left in it. Beyond the price tag, there’s savings on fuel, parts, and other maintenance.

We’ve owned a van since 2005, I can attest to its benefits. I like being able to take my daughter and 5 of her friends to the movies. And it definitely served us well when we turned it into a micro-cabin while camping in Myrtle Beach. Still, the benefits are not daily – not even close – while the costs are. A van is a luxury, and as my household gets smaller, I could have more luxury in a vehicle for less money. But for the moment I won’t, until the van dies, and then I’ll make a change.