stock picking Archives - The Golden AlbatrossThe Golden Albatross

Trump’s Trade War

What’s the worst that could happen?

Hey! How’s it going? In my previous post on President Trump’s Trade War, and its potential to impact your wallet and retirement, I mentioned a future post where I would outline prudent risk mitigation measures an investor might take. Given the fact that the main front of the Trump Trade War kicked off for reals with China on 06 July 2018, it seemed appropriate to pen further articles now. I’ve seen nothing in the intervening days to change my gloomy outlook. In fact, I may have underestimated how bad this situation might get.

I’m getting ahead of myself though. For those of you who missed the first Trump Trade War article, you can find it here. In it, I outlined what I thought was a significant misunderstanding of macroeconomics and strategy (or is that strategery?) within the Trump administration. I showed how the steps they’ve taken on tariffs, free-trade, taxes, and immigration seemed specifically designed to make the next recession worse. I also opined that the administration’s actions may be hastening the onset of the next recession through inflationary pressures. While I bemoaned the idea of a three front trade war, two of which are against some of our closest allies and trading partners; I didn’t necessarily dismiss the need for action on China. Only the method. Continue reading →

“You only have to do very few things right in your life so long as you don’t do too many things wrong.” — Warren Buffett

Learning Lessons the Hard Way

In the fall of 2004, I sold 300 shares of Amazon stock as part of a down payment on my first, and to this point only, home. Wait, before you say “Man, that Grumpus is an idiot” there is more to the story. I bought a home in Southern California (SOCAL) only eighteen months before the height of the housing bubble. For those of you unfamiliar with historical SOCAL housing prices, I’ve posted the below chart of what housing prices did in San Diego from 1987 to 2015:

Yep, that’s bad. So bad, in fact, that my home’s value only recently passed the original price for the first time since the bubble burst. In the meantime the amount of Amazon stock I sold in 2004 would have done this: